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Calculating The Probability Of Having A Bf Sighting


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#1 gigantor

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 10:29 PM

What is the probability of having a BF sighting?

Inquisitive minds want to know, but how to go about it? I admit it's been 20 years since I took probability/statistics in college. Fortunately, in my profession, the need to exercise that skill just didn't come up and I never looked back.

My hope is that members who are fluent in probability will correct me and arrive at a credible, citable number. I'm willing to research the numbers for the actual calculation.

-------
As I remember, half the battle is defining the problem. So I'll say that the simple event A occurs when there has been a BF sighting. So,

P(A) = N(A) / N where

N = the total number of people
N(A) = number of people who have had a sighting

So as defined, it comes down to counting. But I know it's not that simple... help!

Edited by gigantor, 10 October 2011 - 10:30 PM.

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#2 indiefoot

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 10:43 PM

It seems to me the only statistic you could get is "what are the probabilities of reporting a sighting". The number of reports is the only number we might know with any certainty.

Is your goal associated with your recent comments to a couple folks who reported multiple sightings?
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#3 gigantor

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Posted 10 October 2011 - 10:48 PM

That started me thinking about it, but no. I think it would be cool to know the probability, you know, like we do for lightning strikes, etc. and also to relearn something while I'm here...

I was thinking about assuming the number of "class A" reports are actually true.

Edited by gigantor, 10 October 2011 - 10:51 PM.

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#4 wild eyed willy

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 08:03 AM

Your chances of having a BF encounter are (Slim to none) Don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen.

It is for the lucky few that BF will make its presence known, and fewer still will have a visual sighting, even fewer will have a cam running when it happens.

If your out in the woods looking for BF your wasting your time unsless you are there because you love nature and the outdoors or have some other purpose to be there. If you are to be one of the lucky few to encounter BF, it will happen. BF will find you. If the only reason you are out looking is to find Squatch, your probably going to be disappointed often.. May I suggest you take up talking to a wall instead, your results will probably be the same and you can do it from the comfort of your livingroom. You could also try beating your head against a rock, it will get you nowhere,but it will feel really good when you stop. JMHO.


That said, I have much respect for all of you who invest your time and energy researching the phenonenon of The forest people, your efforts are appreciated and in my humble opinion, the world owes you a debt of gratitude. ( you may never collect on it, but it is the thought that counts right).
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Posted 11 October 2011 - 11:59 AM

P( 3724)= 308,745,538(3724)/308,745,538
3724P=3724
P= 3724/3724

P=1????

1 what? 1 % or 1 in 308,745,538???

I don't think it's set up right or either my algebra skills have atrophied.

http://galearning.co...gs-and-stories/

http://2010.census.g.../cb10-cn93.html


Edit to add- if you divide the population by the number of encounters the BFRO has on record, you get, rounded off, something like 1 out of every 82,000 has had a bigfoot encounter, best I can tell without a calculator handy.

Edited by Jodie, 11 October 2011 - 12:06 PM.

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#6 megatarsal

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 12:33 PM

From where i'm sitting?

I'd say 0.0005% on FBFFB

0.05% on You Tube

That's allowing for a Deviation Factor of +/- 6.0 of course
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#7 gigantor

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 02:40 PM

Show the math please...
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#8 gigantor

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 02:50 PM

Edit to add- if you divide the population by the number of encounters the BFRO has on record, you get, rounded off, something like 1 out of every 82,000 has had a bigfoot encounter, best I can tell without a calculator handy.


Jodie, the numbers you plugged in, are they:

N = total population = 308,745,538
N(A) = number of people who had a sighting = 3724

Thanks for looking those numbers up. I get:

P(A) = probability of having a sighting and reporting it = N(A) / N = 3724 / 308,745,538 = 0.000001206171...
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#9 gigantor

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 04:15 PM

So I looked up the "odds" notation trick the lottery uses... 0.000001206171 is the probability I got. Just divide 1 by 0.000001206171 = 829,187.

So the chances of having a sighting are 1 in 829,187. For comparison:

Dying in a car crash: 1 in 6500
Dying from murder: 1 in 16,500
Dying by crossing street: 1 in 48,500
Dying by drowning: 1 in 88,000
Dying in a plane crash: 1 in 400,000
Bigfoot Sighting: 1 in 829,187
MegaMillions Jackpot: 1 in 175,711,536
Powerball Grand Prize: 1 in 195,249,054


Don't play the lottery!!!


Also, the odds are actually much better because as indiefoot pointed out, the numbers we used are only for sightings that were reported.

I'm very surprised.

Edited by gigantor, 11 October 2011 - 04:19 PM.

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#10 Incorrigible1

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 04:59 PM

Posted Image
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#11

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 05:08 PM

So I am more likely to see bigfoot than to ever win the powerball? That is disappointing to say the least.....

This is beyond my capabilities for math but using your odds for someone being in car accident and your odds for seeing a bigfoot, what are the odds of bigfoot causing the car accident?

Edited by Jodie, 11 October 2011 - 05:18 PM.

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#12 Krisop

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 11:14 PM

So what is tho odds of Bigfoot Winning Powerball after dying in a plane crash into the ocean by drowning? :P
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-33.1464,151.5190


#13 indiefoot

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Posted 12 October 2011 - 08:12 AM

I'm right where I should be I guess, I've seen a Bigfoot but I haven't won the lottery.... yet. So how on earth did I dodge all of those calamities. :huh:
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#14 gigantor

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Posted 12 October 2011 - 08:24 AM

:lol:
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#15 megatarsal

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Posted 12 October 2011 - 02:08 PM

Show the math please...


Phew...just taking a break from my stupid notepad.
finally got it all worked out.
Hope you appreciate all this Gigantor.....Got formulae coming out of my ears.
By my reckoning (and according to the Math below)
I should be due a sighting..................any minute now.
Whooohoo.

Posted Image

Edited by megatarsal, 12 October 2011 - 02:24 PM.

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#16 FuriousGeorge

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Posted 14 October 2011 - 05:00 AM

What is the probability of having a BF sighting?
<snip for space>
So as defined, it comes down to counting. But I know it's not that simple... help!


Rather than using an odds ratio, try a relative risk ratio. Commonly used for diseases because it deals with exposure as a variable, which probably applies to answering your above question. People in the cities and such should not be given the same value as depicted above.

I'll let you guys plug in the numbers. :lol:

http://en.wikipedia....i/Relative_risk
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#17 tracker

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Posted 24 October 2011 - 09:44 AM

What is the probability of having a BF sighting?

Inquisitive minds want to know, but how to go about it? I admit it's been 20 years since I took probability/statistics in college. Fortunately, in my profession, the need to exercise that skill just didn't come up and I never looked back.

My hope is that members who are fluent in probability will correct me and arrive at a credible, citable number. I'm willing to research the numbers for the actual calculation.

-------
As I remember, half the battle is defining the problem. So I'll say that the simple event A occurs when there has been a BF sighting. So,

P(A) = N(A) / N where

N = the total number of people
N(A) = number of people who have had a sighting

So as defined, it comes down to counting. But I know it's not that simple... help!





The chances are even very lower if people don't leave their houses or offices and go into woods or have no first hand knowledge or experience or live in poor Bf regions. So don't forget to add those factors into the equations to make it even more obscure in support of the skeptics POV.

Nice try though. Posted Image
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#18 Guest_Jodie_*

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Posted 24 October 2011 - 06:09 PM

I thought Gigantor was a fence sitter...oh well, math can be fun. If you gave this scenario to a high school math class they might actually enjoy figuring it out.
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#19 wild eyed willy

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Posted 24 October 2011 - 06:42 PM

Phew...just taking a break from my stupid notepad.
finally got it all worked out.
Hope you appreciate all this Gigantor.....Got formulae coming out of my ears.
By my reckoning (and according to the Math below)
I should be due a sighting..................any minute now.
Whooohoo.

Posted Image

I don't know if there is such a thing as a +100, but if there is, you just got one from me.... Made my whole day. :D
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#20 megatarsal

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Posted 25 October 2011 - 02:26 AM

WWWilly - thanks ;)
maths2 is a wonderfull thing isn't it?
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