Inquisitive minds want to know, but how to go about it? I admit it's been 20 years since I took probability/statistics in college. Fortunately, in my profession, the need to exercise that skill just didn't come up and I never looked back.

My hope is that members who are fluent in probability will correct me and arrive at a credible, citable number. I'm willing to research the numbers for the actual calculation.

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As I remember, half the battle is defining the problem. So I'll say that the simple event A occurs when there has been a BF sighting. So,

P(A) = N(A) / N where

N = the total number of people

N(A) = number of people who have had a sighting

So as defined, it comes down to counting. But I know it's not that simple... help!

**Edited by gigantor, 10 October 2011 - 10:30 PM.**