BobbyO

Moon Phases

162 posts in this topic

That's a pretty sweet app, thanks for showing it.

 

BobbyO,

 

We can easily program the SSR  to calculate that. All of the variables are already there to calculate moon rise/set and sun rise/set. How do you want the results though?  A percentage in each row of the results page?  an excel file?

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Wonderful Guys, let me work it out and I'll get back to you.

Thank you.

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Yup, I just searched for eyeshine in WA and there were four daylight sightings with eyeshine.

 

I have to mention one thing - eye shine during the day in an SSR report may be a result of a glitch where Odor and Eye-shine selection boxes were switched around in the editor. I've been aware of it and have worked around it as much as possible but I wasn't ALWAYS aware of it. I am certain there will be reports where what should have been odor spits out as Eye-shine.

 

(You may have fixed it already because it was in the Glitch List. I have not been there for several days.)

 

 

... ID has reports in from the Northern part of the State but isn't finished, ...

 

Idaho and Arizona BFRO reports have been finished. I'm working on Oklahoma now, and Arkansas will be next.

 

Entering the BFRO reports for Oregon, California, and Texas will be a HUGE task. It's so huge I don't know where to start. If we want those big states split up into sections the way you did for WA and ID (North, South etc...) then we should make a game plan one of these days on how we should do it. I figured it would be best to start with the Northern CA counties and work downward. Once we knock out a few counties maybe the task will seem less overwhelming.

Edited by Redbone
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Red I've just flown transatlantic and am crazy tired but straight in to work.

Let me put forward a suggestion this week for how we can move forward and we can hopefully agree with a bit of tweaking here and there.

Give me a few days please..;)

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Here is what I got to go on, firstly I spent years fishing at night, mainly because I had several graveyard positions and I would often keep the same schedule on my days off because it proved easier.  So as an avid fisherman I would read the moon phases and time some of my fishing accordingly, the best times were before, during, and after a full moon couple of days either side.  Within that time frame peak feeding periods were noted. The new moon was the minor peak if you accept the full moon as the major peak for each month. That is an oversimplification of sorts but basically spells it out, 3-5 day peaks twice a month.  Recording at night I find these periods to be absolutely correct, all animal activity is heightened barring any adverse weather conditions.  I especially find the full moon in August, September, and October, and if weather is descent November, my absolute best times to record at night. This is when I have captured activity of various kinds including vocalizations and tree banging. It is a palpable sensation when the full moons of early summer come, it is at times bright enough to see without any aid and make out descent amounts of detail. Sasquatch are going to be inline with this activity and the opportunities it offers, that is the nature of things on this planet, we all are affected by the Sun and Moon.

Edited by Lake County Bigfooot
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Thanks for contributing Lake.

My main reason for looking into this is because I believe that it might be possible to find a correlation in to Sasquatch sightings and known game movements in specific phases.

That's my angle.

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Hi BobbyO -

 

Movement ... are you thinking here of day to day activity or seasonal migration? 

 

You've got an interesting idea it sounds like.   In my area, we've have the complication of both happening at once.   I'm searching up high.   Right about now, according to Fish & Wildlife, the deer are starting to move down out of the high country, not a mass exodus yet, just a downward trend in addition to their normal daily movements for food and water.

 

MIB

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That's a pretty sweet app, thanks for showing it.

 

BobbyO,

 

We can easily program the SSR  to calculate that. All of the variables are already there to calculate moon rise/set and sun rise/set. How do you want the results though?  A percentage in each row of the results page?  an excel file?

 

Sorry Guys, i've been pretty much out of the loop for a while.

 

I'll take the results however is easiest G, i'll work things out around what will work.

 

If we can add that to the SSR to spit the results out at the touch of a button, then great of course.

 

The objective of what we are talking about is to work out how many hours on average each moon phase is visible or not during the different times of the year, when we have less and more dark hours whatever the case may be.

 

Yup, I just searched for eyeshine in WA and there were four daylight sightings with eyeshine.

 

I have to mention one thing - eye shine during the day in an SSR report may be a result of a glitch where Odor and Eye-shine selection boxes were switched around in the editor. I've been aware of it and have worked around it as much as possible but I wasn't ALWAYS aware of it. I am certain there will be reports where what should have been odor spits out as Eye-shine.

 

(You may have fixed it already because it was in the Glitch List. I have not been there for several days.)

 

 

... ID has reports in from the Northern part of the State but isn't finished, ...

 

Idaho and Arizona BFRO reports have been finished. I'm working on Oklahoma now, and Arkansas will be next.

 

Entering the BFRO reports for Oregon, California, and Texas will be a HUGE task. It's so huge I don't know where to start. If we want those big states split up into sections the way you did for WA and ID (North, South etc...) then we should make a game plan one of these days on how we should do it. I figured it would be best to start with the Northern CA counties and work downward. Once we knock out a few counties maybe the task will seem less overwhelming.

 

 

PM this afternoon Redbone, and i'll include G.

Hi BobbyO -

 

Movement ... are you thinking here of day to day activity or seasonal migration? 

 

You've got an interesting idea it sounds like.   In my area, we've have the complication of both happening at once.   I'm searching up high.   Right about now, according to Fish & Wildlife, the deer are starting to move down out of the high country, not a mass exodus yet, just a downward trend in addition to their normal daily movements for food and water.

 

MIB

 

More so seasonal movement MIB and i say that as i've seen results of this type of analysis in what i perceive to be a positive way.

 

Lost needs to be taken in to consideration though, and that's why initially i've split up the State of WA in to five different geographical zones within the SSR as each zone is different to the other in terms of terrain and obviously geographical location.

 

Various States would require different types of focal points due to their terrain, their fauna etc.

 

It's having the foresight and knowledge to implement this type of breakdown that will yield positive results for us when analyzing time comes, for sure. 

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check out this chart of sightings with a score between 7 and 10 on the SSR (on a scale of 1 to 10). There are 331 of them. It seems they come out at night mostly when the moon is visible and at least half full.

 

ssr-score-7-10-moon.PNG

 

 

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G/Anybody correct me if i'm reading the moon numbers wrong please but the way i'm seeing it ( not just these specific numbers but overall ).

The way we are set up, those numbers boxed are always going to be highly favorable, just like if you look at the darker moon phases ( top two/bottom two ) and the times of the night the moon isn't visible, is far more than when it is right ?

So that would be the reverse for the boxed, brighter phases where the moon, the majority of the time, is visible ?

This moon stuff and the full understanding of it is top 3 f the 2017 to do list..;)

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 I think we tend to overanalyze sometimes. 

 

The reason the Moon is significant is because of the amount of natural light that it provides during the night.  Nothing more.  The relevant column is the one with a green check mark, that is, night sighting when the moon is visible.

 

The three dark phases of the Moon: New moon, waning crescent moon, and waxing crescent moon all total 10 sightings. It's not even close.

 

All other phases of the moon which provide natural light total 87 sightings.

 

 

 

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But you could also reverse that G and say that nights when there isn't any, or with only a little light emission is significant, from a predators perspective, no ?

IE Top two and bottom two columns when the moon isn't visible, which are both close to the numbers you're boxing off on nights when the moon is visible.

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gigantor,

 

Do they come out more, or does the extra light aid in visibility for humans to see them ? Or are people less active on those low light nights ?

 

I'm simply of the opinion their vision is adapted for the darkness. Even with a full moon, if it's overcast, you're not goin ta get that light. Just my 2 cents.

 

The moon effects the tides, if in a coastal area, I could see were the moon phases would help for clam diggin' etc.

 

Pat...

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11 hours ago, gigantor said:

check out this chart of sightings with a score between 7 and 10 on the SSR (on a scale of 1 to 10). There are 331 of them. It seems they come out at night mostly when the moon is visible and at least half full.

 

ssr-score-7-10-moon.PNG

 

 

 

 

Gigantor, thanks for sharing.

 

Looks like it is a wash.

About half of night sightings with no visible moon light and the other half with visible moonlight.

 

The last time I looked at this for WA, I found some moon phases that increased the likelihood ratio of a reported sighting.

But we were using a moon-phase scale of 0 to 29.

 

The table below is a summary from Bayesian statistical analysis done back in 2014.

The likelihood ratio was 1.3 for Olympic Peninsula for moon-phase range 19-25.

The likelihood ratio was 1.6 for South Cascades for moon-phase range 11-18.

The likelihood ratio was 2.3 for North Cascades for moon-phase range 13-19.

 

 


 

 

Moon Phases Results.PNG

In the previous study, we did not distinguish between moon-phases and visible moon light.

 

Thus, maybe the higher likelihood ratios on moon-phases is not that informative.

 

BTW, we want likelihood ratios above 1.  Otherwise the information does not increase the odds.

The moon phases that I listed on the table yielded the highest LR. Other phases had numbers <  1 or less selected max.

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If one were to consider some seasonal speculations regarding breeding then the chart above fits nicely with that speculation. Namely mating in the daytime hours in the Fall and Spring hunting at night to feed the female and her newborn after winter. The Fall being very territorial in activity and the Spring being more regionally active with a wider area in use? I would think a Fall mating would be more successful between the hours of 6 am to 2 pm and a successful Spring hunt with fewer leaves in deciduous forests to be more successful between the hours of 6 pm to 9 pm before a Full Moon is overhead. Better use of shadows for stalking and eye shine. Also prey would be lit from the side instead of having moonlight coming from directly above. Speculation of course. 

Edited by hiflier
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