Bigfoot Research – Still No Evidence, But Plenty Of Excuses To Explain Why There’S No Evidence

[Guest]

No amount of statistical handwaving can change the FACT that Drew (and those agreeing with him) are 100% wrong about FLIR absolutely being able to pick up all animals present in a study area.

[Guest BFSleuth]

It is difficult to use statistical analysis in the absence of data. Note that these FLIR surveys are simply using guesstimates of how many animals aren't captured on FLIR based on varying conditions of cover.

My earlier question regarding how loud and how low the aircraft are that are used for this survey is questioning whether this might impact a survey as it relates to BF. Internal combustion engines may trigger responses that preclude capturing FLIR images, especially in environments where low flying aircraft is an anomaly.

[Cotter]

I would think that bedded deer would look nothing more than a round blip/blob. Now, a semi-intelligent creature attempting to crouch or hide, would not look like anything human-like, correct?

I would guess that BF has indeed been captured on FLIR.

[Guest MJ151]

I think people are assuming that the general researcher has access to the high end FLIR units. There is a WORLD of difference between the handhelds that the general public has acces to, either due to government restriction or cost, and the aeriel or vehicle mounted units. The vast majority of handhelds are not thermal cooled, or gyro-stabilized. The thermal cooled units are vastly more sensitive in comparision to the handheld units. Even on the state level, the units being used may not be the high end units. If you take a look at the SeaFLIR II unit, that starts at about $300K and goes up. Some states may have that level of devices, some may not. Not until we get to the federal level, can we start to assume they have this grade of unit. It's all about the optics and the internal sensors. Even with the high end units, your not going to penetrate the dense canopy of thw PNW, very often. You see the animals that are in the clearcuts but not the ones 100 yards inside the treeline.

As for using statistics to calculate populations, that's all well and good, but the researcher has a pretty good idea of the target species home range, and general population desities to begine with. A Blacktail deer's home range is much smaller than a cougars. We know next to nothing about BF and thier home range, so assumtions based using other animals are at is best a SWAG. If you do spot one BF in a clear cut there is no data to support how many may be in the treeline.

[Drew]

I wonder why Mcihigan didn't use your formula in this case...........

http://michpics.word...ichigan-cougar/

So based on your formula, what's the cougar population in Michigan? According to the state, it's been zero for decades and we know know that certainly is not the case. Statistics can be used for many purposes, but identifying a species is not one of them and you know the rule, garbage in, garbage out. UPs

Oh- you are talking about the crystal clear game-cam image of an elusive, extraordinarily rare cougar in the upper peninsula of Michigan?

There is no established population in Michigan, there are some males migrating through, and I'm sure some have taken up residence, but female cougars do not wander at the rate of male cougars, there may be a few cougars in the UP, but there is no evidence that I know of, of a breeding population in Michigan's upper peninsula.

Obviously you are not going to use expensive aerial surveys to locate one or two individuals in an area. The game cam would suffice perfectly, as it did in the case of the cougar in the UP. The idea is, that during one of the aerial surveys of 200 pound, quadrupedal deer, you see an 800 lb upright beast. 9'x6'. Another beautiful thing about the FLIR surveys, is that they record the runs, and count later. So it's not a matter of just missing the guy as you fly over, you can pick it up in the video room afterwards.

It is difficult to use statistical analysis in the absence of data. Note that these FLIR surveys are simply using guesstimates of how many animals aren't captured on FLIR based on varying conditions of cover.

My earlier question regarding how loud and how low the aircraft are that are used for this survey is questioning whether this might impact a survey as it relates to BF. Internal combustion engines may trigger responses that preclude capturing FLIR images, especially in environments where low flying aircraft is an anomaly.

The planes typically fly at 1000 feet, but they are not flying directly over the animals, this guy uses 2000 feet altitude, and 4000feet straighline to subject due to a 30 degree down angle. http://www.visionairresearch.com/cost-effective.htm He is counting Sage Grouse. At his flight level, the sound of the plane would arrive 3 seconds later than it is generated. he flies at 70-100 knts

I would say unless Bigfoot has another ability of being able to be scared by internal combustion engines at 3/4 of a mile away, it wouldn't give a rip about a plane coasting by at 75 mph. To add, the idea of them sitting in the middle of a 4-lane highway, with combustion engines going by at 65mph, doesn't jibe with the new found fear of combustion engines.

[Guest BFSleuth]

Thanks for the info about the flight patterns, Drew.

By the way, what sighting report(s) are you referencing where a BF sits in the middle of a 4-lane highway? I'd like to read about that.

[Guest UPs]

Drew.....read the article as it stated the MWC did a peer reviewed study that included DNA evidence that populations do exist in both penninsulas. They also have evidence from as far back as 1966 and sighting reports in this specific area from the 1970,s and forward. This all suggests that there have and still are breeding populations in Michigan and not cougar moving though from the west. The article also references a zoologist who documented sightings and evidence from 1939-1942 in the Huron Mountains area.

The Huron Mountains are a very interesting place and probably the most likely place in the UP for a bf population to exist. It's mostly privately owned by some ultra rich families many of which are not publicly known. You can check out the Huron Mountain Club in a web search to see what you can find. I grew up close by and was only allowed past the gates one time.

[Drew]

UPS-

That paper was debunked thoroughly in 2007. http://www.bioone.or...CE%5D2.0.CO%3B2

After analyzing DNA obtained from fecal samples gathered in Michigan, Swanson and Rusz (2006) claimed that 83% of identified scats were from cougars, indicating to them that a population of these large carnivores existed in the state. In this paper, we identify problems with their methodology, suggest that they unreasonably extrapolated their conclusions and point out that their results are improbable, especially in light of no other evidence in the scientific literature suggesting the existence of a population of cougars in Michigan.

Rusz' claims of photos are also questionable. http://online.wsj.co...l?mod=googlewsj

Dr. Wiater took a photo when he recognized the animal as a cougar. Dr. Rusz drove to Dr. Wiater's home, took photographs and measurements, and determined that a cougar had been there. "He said it was one of the best photos that they have of a wild cougar in Michigan," Dr. Wiater says.

Mr. Hoving, the state biologist, says the sighting remains unverified. Dr. Wiater says state officials told him the photo looks like that of a house cat. Mark Dowling, director of the Cougar Network, a nonprofit research group, says scientists with the group decided, "It's an obvious house cat."

Edited August 23, 2012 by Drew

[Guest BFSleuth]

Fascinating to find that biologists are debating blobcats...

[Guest]

Oh- you are talking about the crystal clear game-cam image of an elusive, extraordinarily rare cougar in the upper peninsula of Michigan?

There is no established population in Michigan, there are some males migrating through, and I'm sure some have taken up residence, but female cougars do not wander at the rate of male cougars, there may be a few cougars in the UP, but there is no evidence that I know of, of a breeding population in Michigan's upper peninsula.

And the chocolate ration has always been cut 4 grams and we have always been at war with Eurasia.

[Guest Flatlander]

Here's my take fwiw.

If you went into the back woods of Arkansas, Kentucky or West Virginia to look for a family who had lived there all their lives, you would never find them if they didn't want to be found. This family may not seem overly inteligent to people who searched for them. They may not know how to invest in the stock market or place an order at Starbucks, but they would know much more about the area where they lived than anyone looking for them. You may find signs that they were there, their cabin, burned wood, tracks, but unless they wanted to be seen, you would not likely see them. On the off chance one of them did make a mistake and get seen and you chased them, they would know the woods so well that they would know every hiding place and shortcut so that you would never catch them.

Bigfoot are smart, I suspect. Probably as smart in their envoronment as someone who has lived in the woods their whole life. We know practically nothing about the woods where they live. We may visit them for a week or two at a time. They spend every day there.

Thats my guess.

[Guest BFSleuth]

That's a good analogy, Flatlander. Reminds me of a radio interview I listened to recently. A reporter went with an expedition into the Amazon to locate a heretofore uncontacted tribe as part of an effort to establish that there was a tribe in the region to set aside land for their use under Brazilian law. Unfortunately I wasn't able to listen to the entire interview, but got to the part where the expedition guides (indigenous Brazilians) came upon a broken branch hanging by a sliver of bark across the trail. This was taken as a universal sign to "Stay Out!" ... sound familiar?

Then they decided to get off the trail to avoid any ambush and mucked through swampy area. Part of the party became separated from the main expedition so they stopped, but nobody came back. They sent a few of the party off in the likely direction to search for the lost members, but after some time they didn't come back. So the balance of the expedition set off to follow the tracks of the search party and came to a recently abandoned village in the middle of the jungle, the tracks of the search party went through the village and then just disappeared....

... and then I arrived at my appointment and had to stop listening, just when it got real interesting!

So, the idea that an entire village of humans can disappear like smoke into the forest is a common experience for these Brazilian officials that are trying to make contact to preserve land for them. Not to mention the expeditions or expedition members that disappear without a trace during their efforts.

Now, couple that level of intelligence and desire to not be contacted with physical abilities that are extraordinary in human terms, like night vision, physical strength, no need for fire, and ability to thrive without clothes in extraordinarily harsh environments; and you have a recipe for a long and mostly fruitless search.

[Guest UPs]

The photgraph published is recent and conclusively a cougar.

For those who wonder why bf has not been officially discovered, take a quick look at the cougar debate in Michigan. There is DNA evidence, tracks, photographs, peer-reviewed paper, and many eye witness accounts from scientists dating back to 1939 and still there is a reluctance from state officials to recognize this animal in Michigan. It's frankly embarrassing.

Established scientists write up their findings with much documentation and conclude there are breeding populations in the state. The article Drew referenced states the reason this paper is wrong is basically.....

'.....they unreasonably extrapolated their conclusions and point out that their results are improbable, especially in light of no other scientific literature suggesting the existance of a breeding population of cougar in Michigan'.

Think about that and how difficult it will be to recognize a new species of primate. It's simply not going to happen without at least 2 bodies and there will still be those that cannot wrap their minds around it.

[Guest BFSleuth]

Yeah, I did notice that phrase, "...especially in light of no other scientific literature suggesting the existance of a breeding population of cougar in Michigan" as being a familiar refrain. This speaks to the issue of science progressing only if the majority of the science community agrees on an issue, with somewhat circular reasoning that says if nobody else has observed this before then it must follow that the new observation has to be wrong.... and we thought we had it tough only in the world of BF?

[salubrious]

I would say unless Bigfoot has another ability of being able to be scared by internal combustion engines at 3/4 of a mile away, it wouldn't give a rip about a plane coasting by at 75 mph. To add, the idea of them sitting in the middle of a 4-lane highway, with combustion engines going by at 65mph, doesn't jibe with the new found fear of combustion engines.

It was a 2-lane hiway, and one not well-traveled that time of day. I am sure they heard me coming for miles. Why they chose to do what they did is beyond me, but they knew they were only dealing with only one vehicle and it was a very conscious act. Edited August 23, 2012 by salubrious