bipedalist Posted February 20, 2015 BFF Patron Posted February 20, 2015 I guess when talking emissions and omissions of moonlight we are really just talking reflected light afterall. Would be nice if we had dates for all sightings. Those without dates or even months would contamninate the system of analysis to an unknown degree. It definitely is a worthy venture to understand these kinds of data and the Olympic Project and Falcon Project could benefit from both I feel.
BobbyO Posted February 20, 2015 SSR Team Author Posted February 20, 2015 (edited) Is this accurate? In either the first or last quarter, approximately the same amount of moon surface is reflecting light back at the earth. It is getting darker night-to-night, but if you lay the two phases out parralel to each other, starting from 0% surface reflecting (the night before the new moon) and running up to 100% surface reflecting (the full moon), the same phases, whether waxing or waning, have the same amount of surface area reflecting light back toward the earth, don't they? Seriously ... they do right? (Now I'm wondering if I can still find my 8th grade science teacher around...) So allowing for other factors - clouds, degree of rise over the horizon, etc - the amount of light is the same, its just increasing as the moon waxes (poetic) and decreases as the moon wanes. Edited to update after reading the next post and chart: Actually, the strange thing in that chart is that it shows the waning phases as having a greater percent illumination than the waxing phases. (see days 16 and 17, then 19 and 20). No wonder I flunked out as an astrology major. It's the fact that during the last quarter, the light is decreasing night by night as it wanes and not increasing like it is in the the first quarter which is why I include it where I do, within the darker phases.That for me is the key, it's the decreasing light that is key as seen in the study of how those Lions use it. I guess when talking emissions and omissions of moonlight we are really just talking reflected light afterall. Would be nice if we had dates for all sightings. Those without dates or even months would contamninate the system of analysis to an unknown degree. It definitely is a worthy venture to understand these kinds of data and the Olympic Project and Falcon Project could benefit from both I feel. Yeah the reports that don't have exact dates are automatically left out of the moon numbers when I pull them up, we tick a "not accurate date" button when we are adding the data and the system ignores all of those reports when we look at the moon phases within the system.I met Tom Baker of the Olympic Project recently B in London after talking to him for maybe a couple of years now, we had a very good evening together talking about the benefits of this stuff and how this type of stuff can move the subject forward. Tom is the data Guy for the Olympic Project and was the Guy who done the stand up talk on data at the Sasquatch Summit. We're on it B, we're on it.. Edited February 20, 2015 by BobbyO
Trogluddite Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 You are not taking into account the craters and surface features of the moon. The "sea of tranquility" reflects less light than the mountain ranges. Really Trog? are you serious? Not quite sure if serious - internet humor escapes me - but I believe that the same side of the moon always faces the earth. Although I suppose the percentage of mountains in the reflected area would change since the "exposure" of the moon is moving from different directions as we view it. Really, if we get to needing that detailed knowledge on moonlight, I'd say we've done our job... Only the moon phase. Visibility of the moon from the witness perspective would require knowing the exact time of the sighting, the witness's longitude / latitude at the time of the sighting, then calculating the earth's inclination relative to the moon at the time. It's not feasible because we almost never have the exact time, but also because of the other variables. There is a formula for calculating it, but the sighting reports often don't include enough info to make it worth while. Then, there is the weather, what if it's overcast? There are detailed charts that give % of illumination and provide the exact times of BMNT and EMNT (I may have the abbreviations wrong, its been 30 years since I've used this), which is when humans have effective light before sunrise and after sunset. But these don't take into account local weather or terrain factors. For example, our house is masked at sunrise by a large ridge to our south.
MIB Posted February 20, 2015 Moderator Posted February 20, 2015 Only the moon phase. Visibility of the moon from the witness perspective would require knowing the exact time of the sighting, the witness's longitude / latitude at the time of the sighting, then calculating the earth's inclination relative to the moon at the time. It's not feasible because we almost never have the exact time, but also because of the other variables. There is a formula for calculating it, but the sighting reports often don't include enough info to make it worth while. Then, there is the weather, what if it's overcast? I appreciate the reply. Win some lose some. I can't use your data as a test bed for my hypothesis but I've refined the hypothesis a bit. Thanks!! MIB
gigantor Posted February 20, 2015 Admin Posted February 20, 2015 There are detailed charts Trog, That's why I like you, nothing gets past you. Charts! of course, before computers, people compiled charts. Which means we don't need to calculate it, if we find the right chart, it becomes a simple lookup operation. The way the moon phase function works, you give it a date and it gives you back number between 1 (new moon) and 29 (full moon). It is then up to us to interpret when the different phases occur. It is easily adjustable in the SSR code, would you please help me fine tune it? Then we can lookup in the chart to see what time the moon was visible and compare that to time of the sighting... automatically! @MIB what is your hypothesis?
MIB Posted February 20, 2015 Moderator Posted February 20, 2015 My focus is on the events that seem to be a result of deliberate action, not accidents of timing like road crossing sightings. Primarily nocturnal camp visits. Those seem to be happening to me on nights with a fairly bright moon but during the part of the night the moon is below the horizon. I think a couple things are in play. It's very possible that those things happen on a new moon night as well, I just sleep through them because there is nothing to concentrate the activity into a specific window during the night. I think the deeper darkness while the moon is below the horizon gives a increased sense of cover. (Think here about the thermal videos that seem to show BFs hiding behind tree trunks even when it is full dark.) A couple hour window of lower exposure sandwiched between daylight and bright moonlight should be their opportunity to come in closer more comfortably. You're right about cloud cover / overcast but it can be treacherous. Never know when a break in the cloud cover can leave you out in the open and exposed. I'd been focused on nights when a half moon rose at midnight or a little after. I need to expand that and try to wake up in time for a 2:00 or so moon-set and see what happens if that dark part is pre dawn instead of post-sunset. That doubles the size of my search window. MIB
Whistler Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 Interesting read- he's the link.. http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phase_hunting.phtml Hunting By The Moon PhaseEvery season, millions of hunters take to the woods with renewed enthusiasm and vigor. Unfortunately, many come away empty handed, returning day after day to face similar results. It's every hunter's biggest dilemma, but some have found the perfect solution, and that is hunting by moon phase. Fishermen have long been aware of the powerful influence of the moon on the tides and chart the various phases of the moon in order to determine the best time to fish. Similarly, animals are in tune with their surroundings and certain shifts in natural forces trigger corresponding responses in the wild. For years, researchers have studied the reaction of wildlife to changes in the position of the sun and moon and have come up with some rather interesting observations in relation to hunting by moon phase. So, how does this work? How can paying attention to the phases of the moon help ensure a hunter's success? Animals and the Moon Animals in the wild tend to be less active during daylight hours. Feeling safer under the cover of darkness, many animals will increase their activity as dusk falls. However, many observers have noted that activity amongst all animals is greater when the moon is full and that this one form of hunting by moon phase -- hunting during periods of full moon -- can yield excellent results. In other words, if you're aware of the phases of the moon, you're in a better position to anticipate the peak of animal activity. The more active they are, the better your chances will be of finding them. Moon Phase Deer Hunting Much of the research that has been done on this subject has involved hunting deer, and many hunters swear that hunting by moon phase is the only way to accurately predict deer activity. But the moon doesn't only have an impact on deer activity. The various phases of the moon also seem to have a direct effect on deer mating patterns, which in turn make them easier to locate. It's because of this that moon phase deer hunting -- as it's becoming commonly known -- is quickly gaining acceptance. Being aware of when the breeding season begins helps to determine travel patterns and areas of increased deer activity. When the breeding season is at its peak, finding deer is easier and finding more than one in a particular area more likely. So what does this have to do with the moon? A female deer's reproductive cycle is influenced by the different phases of the moon, and peaks in the three or four days surrounding the second full moon after the autumnal equinox. When the does are in heat, the bucks begin rubbing and scraping in an attempt to attract them. If you know when the full moon occurs, you can be at the right spot, at the right time, and have the best chance for success, luring the bucks into your site. By being aware of the different moon phases, deer hunting can be far more successful. But not only that, it can also help you figure out when not to hunt. You aren't going to be successful after the deer have mated and even the phase when the bucks are chasing the does can be pretty fruitless. By becoming familiar with these patterns and planning ahead, hunting by moon phase will almost certainly lead to your best hunting season ever
Trogluddite Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 It's the fact that during the last quarter, the light is decreasing night by night as it wanes and not increasing like it is in the the first quarter which is why I include it where I do, within the darker phases. That for me is the key, it's the decreasing light that is key as seen in the study of how those Lions use it....... BobbyO, That's how I understood you were looking at it earlier - relative to the prior day, is the amount of ambient light increasing or decreasing, AOTB=. The lion chart did it for me as well - that's why I now use essentially the same moon phases as the SSR. Trog, That's why I like you, nothing gets past you. Charts! of course, before computers, people compiled charts. Which means we don't need to calculate it, if we find the right chart, it becomes a simple lookup operation. The way the moon phase function works, you give it a date and it gives you back number between 1 (new moon) and 29 (full moon). It is then up to us to interpret when the different phases occur. It is easily adjustable in the SSR code, would you please help me fine tune it? Then we can lookup in the chart to see what time the moon was visible and compare that to time of the sighting... automatically! @MIB what is your hypothesis? For anyone not familiar w/BMNT & EMNT, here's the wiki-explanation. That's slightly different than the issue of when the moon rises. This local moon rise chart is similar to what I previously used f/BMNT & EMNT, although its still not quite the same thing. G, if I understood your post above, the SSR is linked to a database or system that automatically defines whether a given day out of the 29 day cycle (picking a day at random, day 13) is a certain phase. Since that's likely a scientifically accepted determination, I don't see any need to change what the SSR tells you. As I recall, there was rarely any significant variance between what the SSR assigned and what I selected for my moon phase. I did a quick Bing search and there are oodles of moon rise calculating sites - maybe one of those will be workable for the SSR. Most of the hard copy charts I was referring to were probably shredded years ago.
gigantor Posted February 20, 2015 Admin Posted February 20, 2015 Not quite. I got the formula to calculate the moon phase and then wrote the code into the SSR as a function. The function takes in a date and outputs a number between 1 and 29 which indicates which phase (cycle) the moon is in. But then I had to decide what range of days constitute a waning crescent for example. I eyeballed those eight ranges and could probably use some fine tuning. The Naval Observatory has the charts for sunrise/set, but only on one year tables, so I could use some help assembling those.
gigantor Posted February 20, 2015 Admin Posted February 20, 2015 One question.... What is the moon visibility accuracy needed for our purposes? 60 minutes (easy to do) 30 minutes (double the work) 15 minutes ( a lot of work)
Trogluddite Posted February 21, 2015 Posted February 21, 2015 G, To answer both posts ... Like I said, the moon phases the SSR produced and the ones I looked up generally matched. I will defer to BobbyO and other users/inputters to the SSR inasmuch as I have no "skin" invested in it. I want to apply logic, but then I get back to a complete moon cycle being 29 & 1/2 days - how do you have 1/2 a night of moon? (This is also why I failed calculus my freshman year - how fast does the bucket fill with a hole in the bottom of 3 inch diameter? My answer: A lot slower than if you patch the hole!!) I would turn it into seven categories, though, not 8. That way you get 3 phases where light is increasing, the full moon phase, and 3 phases where the light is decreasing. Then you're back to phase 1. 29.5 days/7 phases = 4.2142857142857142857142857142857 days/phase. (Something must be wrong with my computer's calculator, it just keeps repeating the last 6 digits over and over). Anyway, you have to add 1 day somewhere to keep the 29 day calculation cycle correct. Use the moon phases I outlined above. 29.5 days/8 phases = 3.6875 (Calculator is working again.) You still end up w/each phase being 4 days and 1 phase being slightly larger. If you have 8 categories, you have "pitch black," then 3 ascending, the full moon, and 3 descending and back to phase 1. Use the moon phases already in the SSR. Either way, make sure its clear which phase has the extra night. That phase is 20% larger than the other phases, so any statistical analysis has to take that into consideration. As to the issue of the degree of accuracy needed, I (again, not having skin in the game) would go with 60 minutes. The bottom line is that you're not likely to get many reports with sufficiently detailed information to make a smaller variance (or whatever the technical term is) necessary.
gigantor Posted February 21, 2015 Admin Posted February 21, 2015 (edited) Thanks Trog. I'm gonna take the fine tuning of the moon phases to the SSR forum and start a thread so we don't derail this one. I would appreciate your help with that. I coded that three years ago and remember spending a lot of time on it. The function may return a value between 0 and 29 (instead of 1 to 29), which would account for the missing half day. I'll revisit the code and post the details there along with the eyeball parameters. That's where I need your knowledge and help. I think they are very close, but want to get them as accurate as possible. It looks like the charts for moon rise/set are very dependent on the longitude of the sighting. It's doable but it'll take some labor. A look up table for each time zone. We're staring at 5 time zones charts for 70 years (1950 to 2020). So 350 charts. Doable with help.... the good news is that the Naval Observatory formats the charts so that they are easily made computer readable, it takes about three minutes per chart. Once we compile the charts, the rest is trivial. So it's a bunch of upfront work and then smooth sailing. The reward is moon phase stats taking into account whether the moon was visible at the time of the sighting, automatically generated! Plus we can also add a new metric inspired by MIBs hypothesis, the number of sightings when the moon is not visible. Anyone willing to help, please PM me. Edited February 21, 2015 by gigantor
bipedalist Posted February 21, 2015 BFF Patron Posted February 21, 2015 My focus is on the events that seem to be a result of deliberate action, not accidents of timing like road crossing sightings. Primarily nocturnal camp visits. Those seem to be happening to me on nights with a fairly bright moon but during the part of the night the moon is below the horizon. I think a couple things are in play. It's very possible that those things happen on a new moon night as well, I just sleep through them because there is nothing to concentrate the activity into a specific window during the night. I think the deeper darkness while the moon is below the horizon gives a increased sense of cover. (Think here about the thermal videos that seem to show BFs hiding behind tree trunks even when it is full dark.) A couple hour window of lower exposure sandwiched between daylight and bright moonlight should be their opportunity to come in closer more comfortably. You're right about cloud cover / overcast but it can be treacherous. Never know when a break in the cloud cover can leave you out in the open and exposed. I'd been focused on nights when a half moon rose at midnight or a little after. I need to expand that and try to wake up in time for a 2:00 or so moon-set and see what happens if that dark part is pre dawn instead of post-sunset. That doubles the size of my search window. MIB The night of my sighting (which was around civil twilight), the moon did not rise until 3am or later. My observations of greatest activity have been around crescent waxing/waning within two or three days. That is less darkness, and closer to the new moon.
Lake County Bigfooot Posted February 21, 2015 Posted February 21, 2015 (edited) Just from my fishing experience, which relied heavily on the lunar phase, Spring and Fall seemed best around the new moon, and summer was best during the full moons,two days either side of each. In my recordings I have noticed activity around both new and full moons in the fall, but that is simply because for some reason these creatures seem to get more vocal in the fall months, though several of my best captures occurred during that 5 day period before or after. 2015 Best Fishing Days based on the hypothesis of the moon phases January 1 – 4 January 20 – February 3 February 18 – March 5 March 20 – April 4 April 18 – May 3 May 18 – June 2 June 16 – July 1 July 15 – 31 August 14 – 29 September 13 – 27 October 12 – 27 November 11 – 25 December 11–25 This information is regularly used by hunters as most animals seem to peek in activity during these cycles, so our friend the Sasquatch must be subject to these same forces, even humans are effected by them. Have you never noticed the sensation of feeling energized around the full moon? http://science.time.com/2013/07/25/how-the-moon-messes-with-your-sleep/ Edited February 21, 2015 by Lake County Bigfooot
Guest Posted March 4, 2015 Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting read- he's the link.. http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phase_hunting.phtml Good post, the idea of Bigfoots more active during hours of darkness as opposed to daylight is something I found interesting. I want to look at that more closely and see what I have … I’ll post the findings here.
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