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Correlations Between Seasons And Sighting Elevations?

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bipedalist

Winter's average elevation is 1,600ft

Spring's average elevation is 2,112ft

Fall's average elevation is 3,286ft

Summer's average elevation is 3,485ft

:)

This pattern makes more intuitive sense to me. (except>>>suggestion<<< I'd line the season's up in chrono. order personally ;) )

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BobbyO
SSR Team

This pattern makes more intuitive sense to me. (except>>>suggestion<<< I'd line the season's up in chrono. order personally ;) )

Tranquilo B, i'm just slapping them on here but i do have them on the spreadsheet in sensible order ( i think :D ) for all of the WA Wilderness areas. ;)

Last one for the day for me, it's Gifford Pinchot National Forest time & the 28 total Reports from the Mount Adams, Indian Heaven & Trapper Creek Wilderness areas.

Winter makes up 7% of these Reports

Fall makes up 36% of these Reports

Spring makes up 18% of these Reports

Summer makes up 39% of these Reports

Winter's average elevation is 2,058ft

Fall's average elevation is 2,885ft

Spring's average elevation is 2,982ft

Summer's average elevation is 4,114ft

Just to let you know Lads & Lasses, i've done 165 Reports so far & 20 out of 31 Wilderness areas.. :)

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gigantor

Thanks for the complement LittleFeat.

IMO the sample size is too small for valid statistical analysis.

I disagree.

Compounding the problem is the adage that (at least) two things have to take place for there to be a sighting:

  1. A BF has to be in the area.
  2. A person must be in the same area to make a sighting.

I agree.

By NOT having equal numbers of people exploring all elevations, the data is automatically skewed...

Is accident data automatically skewed because there are not the same number of cars in each intersection?

I guess it is, but it is not useless, insurance companies don't think so anyway.

Regardless, I still want to see what it looks like. :)

Edited by gigantor

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Guest LittleFeat

First of all, great analysis of the data guys.

However, I just don't think that there's enough data to draw any conclusions about where they are located.

Well i'm initially focusing on WA, the State with i believe over 500 Reports in the BFRO Database & of course it's going to be incredibly to " locate " them, but i just felt with what i'm currently doing ( which i'm giving off little parts of it as i go along ) in looking at the correlation between BFRO Reports & the proximity of a designated Wilderness area ( within or within 5 miles of ) it may just give us an idea at least.

I have since added elevations >> seasons which i'm glad i did as i believe i'm finding out patterns, which may just help us locate them/one, you never know.

I agree that the patterns are interesting. :D

I've thought about building a GIS database for the same reasons as you, except I don't have any confidence in the coordinates given for the sightings. I have a hunch that at least one large online database intentionally gives the wrong directions and and coordinates, unless of course the "investigators" are instead directionally-challenged. :rolleyes: IMO the sample size is too small for valid statistical analysis.

I'm not so sure, maybe they do, but one of the reasons i chose WA was that i am a little bit familiar with the areas i'm focusing on & if/when i'm stuck, i'd like to think i can call on a few Members of the Forum who are much more familiar with the specific areas who can help me.

I have come accross wrongly located pins in the Mangani Google Earth overlay ( are you aware of that program ? ) but with the one i'm doing my spreadsheet, i am able to " weed them out " & trash them which shouldn't affect my numbers..

I'm aware of Mangini's overlay and hopefully you can improve it's accuracy.

Compounding the problem is the adage that (at least) two things have to take place for there to be a sighting:

A BF has to be in the area.

A person must be in the same area to make a sighting.

Of course, which is why i got pretty excited ( in a Geek kind of way :D ) when i looked into the North Cascades National Park ( earlier in this thread ), it's Year by Year & Month by Month visitors & found it what we did compared to other parks >> sighting ratios.

Plus, how do we know that BF live where they're sighted... maybe they're just visiting a food source that they only visit when they're passing thru the area once every five years. To me, there has to be a compelling reason for them to be where they are, for example, very difficult access, perennial springs, rivers or creeks, a healthy ungulate population, elevation over the surrounding land to see who's coming and going, etc.

We don't know anything LFF, that's why i'm doing what i'm doing anyway in the hope that maybe, just maybe, we can find soem consistency's in what we have to work with & i honestly believe we ( including Gigantor ) are doing so.

I applaud your efforts and hope it leads us somewhere.

There may be many BF at higher elevations, but most people tend to recreate in the lower elevation montane areas surrounding the high mountains. If more people explored higher elevations for extended periods of time, they may well find the BF "glory hole". By NOT having equal numbers of people exploring all elevations, the data is automatically skewed, because there's too many variables to predict.

The Data is pointing towards a unanimous elevation >> season ratio where average elevations from Reports are calculated and then the Seasons added which give us an obvious pattern.

Yes, but again more data and better coverage for all elevations and seasons is necessary.

The pattern is that the elevations go in the same order every time in areas with over 20 Reports which is needed to give decent & hopefully more accurate averages.

Summer reports have the highest elevations, Winter reports have the lowest elevations, with the 2 Seasons in between pretty even.

If what i find for WA would be the same like i think it will be, for BC, OR & CA would that be a pattern that could/should be taken notice of, or would it be dismissed ??

As a witness, i will completely take notice of it as will i believe every other Witness to these things that know they exist as we're not fighting with the idea that they may not exist.

Do you understand what i mean ?

Yes, I understand and you should definitely keep performing analysis to detect trends.

Again, I don't mean to poo poo your analysis, because it's very well done, but you know what they say, "garbage in, garbage out".

I've never heard that saying personally but i'm not really one for sitting on my butt & waiting for something to happen so i'd prefer to " do " rather than " not do " & as i can't be in the US like i currently want to be, i feel that what i am doing here can help other researchers & if it does, it'd make it all completely worthwhile for me. :)

I appreciate your help!

The saying that i like to link to this is " If you don't shoot, you don't score. " ;)

Please keep doing! :D

My posts are in blue

Please don't take my input as negative criticism, because you've done some great analysis to find the seasonal pattern. I just happen to think that, thru no fault of yours, there isn't enough data yet to draw any conclusions.

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Guest LittleFeat
Thanks for the complement LittleFeat.

You're welcome, it's great work that you and BobbyO have done.

IMO the sample size is too small for valid statistical analysis.

I disagree.

Ok.

Compounding the problem is the adage that (at least) two things have to take place for there to be a sighting:

A BF has to be in the area.

A person must be in the same area to make a sighting.

I agree.

By NOT having equal numbers of people exploring all elevations, the data is automatically skewed...

Is accident data automatically skewed because there are not the same number of cars in each intersection?

I guess it is, but it is not useless, insurance companies don't think so anyway.

I see, but not having equal numbers of people exploring all elevations is like ignoring data from certain intersections.

Regardless, I still want to see what it looks like.

I agree, it's great that you are performing the analysis and I hope it leads us somewhere.

I'm in Colorado and the elevations that seem to be hot around here are in the 9000' range, but there's a fair number of above-treeline sightings by mountaineers during the winter and spring. Good luck with your analysis!

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gigantor

I'm in Colorado and the elevations that seem to be hot around here are in the 9000' range, but there's a fair number of above-treeline sightings by mountaineers during the winter and spring. Good luck with your analysis!

Thanks. You know, we could use some help... :)

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BobbyO
SSR Team

Are you volunteering for CO LF ?? ;)

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The data is probably slightly skewed on certain sightings, but I'd say the trends of seasonal elevation patterns between all of the different wilderness areas is good enough to show a frequency pattern that we can use to profile their habits with. According to the knowledge that I have for the GPNF elk populations, the elevation pattern of BF mirrors the elk elevations per season. It makes perfect sense to me.

Based on Bobby's info about the GPNF, aside from the elk patterns, they seem to fall into place with the general snow line in my area that I hunt, to a certain extent. In summer, and fall the elevations put them in the Goat Rocks wilderness area, which becomes accessible in the summer time, and is snow free until late fall, for the most part.

Thanks for all the hard work, fellas! I know some people think all the work/thought that people put into BF is overkill, but once you see one, it completely changes the way you view them. If I was only a believer, I doubt I could think about them in the same way, and couldn't dedicate as much time to the subject as I do.

I'm in Colorado and the elevations that seem to be hot around here are in the 9000' range, but there's a fair number of above-treeline sightings by mountaineers during the winter and spring. Good luck with your analysis!

Did you ever watch the Snowbeast Slaughter episode of MQ? They did an elevation pattern of sightings in the Pikes Peak area, and in the winter they had them at 7,300 to 9,000 ft, but in the summer time they were sighted at least 1,000 feet higher.

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gigantor

I agree PacNW, we're just getting started. Conclusions are still a ways away. We're just having a first look at the data here, and there's much work to be done yet.

How about it LF? Help us have a look at the data and then come to a conclusion.

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BobbyO
SSR Team

The data is probably slightly skewed on certain sightings, but I'd say the trends of seasonal elevation patterns between all of the different wilderness areas is good enough to show a frequency pattern that we can use to profile their habits with. According to the knowledge that I have for the GPNF elk populations, the elevation pattern of BF mirrors the elk elevations per season. It makes perfect sense to me.

Yeah cool i thought it would, it's only really natural after all.

If that BFRO Database was infiltrated with bogus reports, i can't believe that the patters we are starting to see would be so, that would be even more against the odds than anything else that this subject throws at us as it would have to consist of a kind of secret cult that are strategically placing Sightings in specific areas, at specific times of the year & at specific elevations, over the course of 50 plus Years & simply " should " be more ridiculous for many to digest than the actual existence of this Animal.

Based on Bobby's info about the GPNF, aside from the elk patterns, they seem to fall into place with the general snow line in my area that I hunt, to a certain extent. In summer, and fall the elevations put them in the Goat Rocks wilderness area, which becomes accessible in the summer time, and is snow free until late fall, for the most part.

Funny you should say that about Goat Rocks PacNW, i always had it in my head for some reason that GRW was a kind of BF Mecca but after doing this, i was actually quite shocked at how little reported Sightings there were in the specific area IE a big fat ZERO.

I don't think the Wilderness is very well visited & like has been mentioned, to have Sightings you need the people there in the first place & it's not easy getting visitor figures for GRW because only one permit is needed per Group of Visitors & up to 12 Visitors are allowed per Group.

Thanks for all the hard work, fellas! I know some people think all the work/thought that people put into BF is overkill, but once you see one, it completely changes the way you view them. If I was only a believer, I doubt I could think about them in the same way, and couldn't dedicate as much time to the subject as I do.

Like G said, it's just the beginning. I think this will give us a base & then when i've finished what i'm currently doing, i'll be able to then focus on even more specific areas within WA & pay them more detail where we'd then start all over again & use what we have built so far to hopefully then find more specific patterns in those specific areas ( breaking things down even more ) & i'd like to think that on the way we will come across problems but five heads are better than one so i'm not that worried about finding answers to them.. :)

Pac, i would be interested in any Elk patterns & Herd info that are public for the GPNF, are you aware of any ?? Previously i purchased some Elk & Deer Migration routes in Colorado which really helped me find a pattern of movement there in correlation to BF Sightings.

My bold..

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gigantor

Ouachita Mountains Area (37N-98W to 33N-89W). The pic below shows the approximate area.

post-338-029235700 1321494131_thumb.jpg

Scatter plot of all sightings in the area from 1998 to 2010.

post-338-062909200 1321494204_thumb.jpg

Individual years.

post-338-007256800 1321494237_thumb.jpg

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gigantor

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (50N-110W to 40N-95W). The pic below shows the approximate area.

post-338-083604400 1321503600_thumb.jpg

Scatter plot of all sightings in the area from 1997 to 2009 (zero sightings in 2010).

post-338-092041500 1321503688_thumb.jpg

Individual years

post-338-092844100 1321503717_thumb.jpg

Edited by gigantor

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Guest TooRisky

Not to be the bummer in this discussion but there is a variable that is not discussed.... It is the human variable in the selected area in the selected time....We are talking sightings per season in a given area... Now in a general sense this may work, but a sighting is not general, it is specific, so there is the second error...

1) The sighting has to have 2 factors, a human presence and well a BF presence...If no humans are in the area is there going to be a sighting...??? thus the seasons come into play, ask yourself if more humans are in the area in summer as compared to the winter... Then ask if the same BF are in the area year round, when will they logically be seen... Also are we seeing the same BF in an area...

2) the use of general sightings in say the US as a whole will alter any effort and numbers one is looking for... To get a real essence of an area one has to work the specific area and then work the numbers through the seasons and other factors such as moon cycles and possibly things like salmon runs...

3) once the area research has brought forth numbers which are not tainted by unsound research, then and only then can a person start to build a data log of the state... and then as a whole of the country....

needless to say this takes years of dedicated research of one...This can be consolidated and correlated through many different sources of dedicated research in a year or two... this of course would take many like minded people which is very difficult....

What i am saying is this is not an impossible task, but due to human arrogance is a very improbable task...

all IMHO

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gigantor

Duly noted TR. Nobody here is drawing any conclusions yet, we are simply looking at the available data.

Are you suggesting we shouldn't even bother examining what we do have?

BTW, if you have better data from your many years of experience and skilled research which you would like to share, I'd love to incorporate it into the dataset (or look at it separately if you wish) and it would be greatly appreciated. :)

Edited by gigantor

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BobbyO
SSR Team

Not to be the bummer in this discussion but there is a variable that is not discussed.... It is the human variable in the selected area in the selected time....We are talking sightings per season in a given area... Now in a general sense this may work, but a sighting is not general, it is specific, so there is the second error...

An individual Sighting isn't general, it's specific yeah for sure, but 500 plus Sightings in one State would be more general 2R & that's what i'm looking at to get patterns from.

1) The sighting has to have 2 factors, a human presence and well a BF presence...If no humans are in the area is there going to be a sighting...??? thus the seasons come into play, ask yourself if more humans are in the area in summer as compared to the winter... Then ask if the same BF are in the area year round, when will they logically be seen... Also are we seeing the same BF in an area...

Of course, you're right. You'd be astonished ( or maybe you wouldn't ) at the lack of reports anywhere in WA in the Months of December, January & February so far. But they are there, there are some so i feel i can do something with those. Nothing's conclusive with what i'm doing here & i wouldn't say it was but i do honestly believe that patterns may be found & if they are & i can make it clear enough for people to see them, then it's down to the individuals to take notice of them, or not. It's not a problem either way.

2) the use of general sightings in say the US as a whole will alter any effort and numbers one is looking for... To get a real essence of an area one has to work the specific area and then work the numbers through the seasons and other factors such as moon cycles and possibly things like salmon runs...

That's why i wanted initially to focus on WA..Once i get the State wise figures all done then i can break it down even further like i am doing right now into the larger Wilderness areas that would be connected for example. Then i will be able to start to factor in other things like the Salmon runs etc, you know i can do that.

3) once the area research has brought forth numbers which are not tainted by unsound research, then and only then can a person start to build a data log of the state... and then as a whole of the country....

needless to say this takes years of dedicated research of one...This can be consolidated and correlated through many different sources of dedicated research in a year or two... this of course would take many like minded people which is very difficult....

I know 2R & i was aware of that when i started what i'm personally doing, a few weeks back ( not long after i got back from WA ) but i personally am not just around for the Opening Ceremony, i'm in it for the whole hog so it's not a problem for me..

What i am saying is this is not an impossible task, but due to human arrogance is a very improbable task...

all IMHO

My bold..

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