aether-drift Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 To whoever said "flu is essentially the same virus as covid-19 with a century of genetic evolution." Nope. Coronaviruses are not even in the same ORDER as influenza viruses. Completely different taxonomic lineages and fundamentally different viruses. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiflier Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Huntster said: Yup. Early estimates are forecasting 550,000 to 4.5 million infected, and at a 3% fatality rate we're looking at @ 17K to 135K dead. I think we can expect that, and consider ourselves lucky if that's as bad as it gets. Agreed. Those numbers are tough to accept. If the estimates play out, even on the low side, then it would seem we still have a ways to go......and grieve. These things always have a way of not ending well. There's nothing I could think of saying right now that would somehow make it better except that my heart goes out to those who are ill, and those on the front lines trying to help them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nipissing Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 I'm a little concerned as I've just returned from a work trip which involved transiting through Toronto (ground zero for the Canadian outbreak, and where the majority are actually NOT Canadian) and meanwhile Mr. Nipissing is undergoing radiation therapy so his immune system is on the ropes anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bipedalist Posted March 1, 2020 BFF Patron Share Posted March 1, 2020 Stay safe out there and use all protections, hoping for full recovery of all those with afflictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huntster Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 13 hours ago, aether-drift said: To whoever said "flu is essentially the same virus as covid-19 with a century of genetic evolution." Nope........ That was me, I admit error, and I apologize. It was the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic that was the same virus as the 1918 Spanish Flu that infected @ 1/3 of existing mankind and had a 10% fatality rate. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic ....... Coronaviruses are not even in the same ORDER as influenza viruses. Completely different taxonomic lineages and fundamentally different viruses. I would like to read any reference you can offer to support that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWWASAS Posted March 1, 2020 BFF Patron Share Posted March 1, 2020 Our local news was talking about the Washington State outbreak. A nursing home has had it going on for several weeks that was initially thought to be normal flu until they tested recently. There are no known Chinese links to the place. A State official now thinks it is widespread in NW Washington because nothing was put under controls at the nursing home for a long time. Most of the staff and patients are testing positive and all of their close contacts are at risk. A mail carrier has been tested positive. Everyone he delivered to is at risk. I was worried about my trip to California but I might be safer down there than here in Washington State. I guess our local Costcos are having big runs on toilet paper, surface cleaners, etc. Masks are unavailable but gloves still are. For prevention I think wearing gloves in public places is more important than the unlikely chance someone coughs or sneezes in your face. The surfaces that would be contaminated will be that way for at least 48 hours. Just be careful taking gloves off and disposing of them to avoid touching the fingers and palms. If you have garbage service the garbage man is spreading whatever he is exposed to can to can on the lids and handles. Mail should be treated as if contaminated. There is a reason letter carriers wear rubber gloves. Some local schools are doing deep cleanings this weekend. But the first kid that walks in with the disease will contaminate the place. What in the world were business executives thinking when they outsourced most of the world manufacturing to one country, that originates most of the disease that races around the planet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiflier Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, SWWASAS said: What in the world were business executives thinking when they outsourced most of the world manufacturing to one country, that originates most of the disease that races around the planet? There is a right answer to that. It's the ONLY answer. It's the same answer to why we don't have a verified Sasquatch. And we all know it. But even with the answer nothing changes. Funny how that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huntster Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, SWWASAS said: Our local news was talking about the Washington State outbreak. A nursing home has had it going on for several weeks that was initially thought to be normal flu until they tested recently. There are no known Chinese links to the place. A State official now thinks it is widespread in NW Washington because nothing was put under controls at the nursing home for a long time. Most of the staff and patients are testing positive and all of their close contacts are at risk. A mail carrier has been tested positive. Everyone he delivered to is at risk. I was worried about my trip to California but I might be safer down there than here in Washington State....... Don't count on that. I'm in Orange County, and I came down with something on Ash Wednesday that is very strange. The only respiratory aspect so far was a couple days of soft booger balls from my sinuses that were the size of small marbles. My throat has been sore all along, and I've been ached and fevered all along. No coughing, sneezing, or lung discomfort. The fever and achiness have been mild. My flu shot was acquired here in Orange County in October, and I've had a pneumonia vaccine but it was probably close to or over ten years ago. I have been fully functional all along. I'm hoping my 91 year old Mom doesn't get it, but physical contact is all day long. It seems like I get sick every time I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWWASAS Posted March 1, 2020 BFF Patron Share Posted March 1, 2020 I was supposed to go to California three weeks ago. Came down with basically the same thing Huntster described. Except did have a mostly dry cough and chest that felt like someone was standing on it. I would think it a cold and cough except I ran a fever too. Felt crappy for a few days and finally got rid of runny nose first then the cough. The media was reporting that cruise ship passengers were getting better then getting it again. That means having it does not give you immunity and also most vaccines developed for viruses will not work. I have had a flu shot every year for the last 51 years. The military even gave me one that was giving people swine flu before they stopped giving them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huntster Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, SWWASAS said: ........The media was reporting that cruise ship passengers were getting better then getting it again. That means having it does not give you immunity and also most vaccines developed for viruses will not work......... I'm wondering if what I caught was brought to me by Mrs. Huntster. It sounppnds like what she described to me, but the problem with that is the infection/incubation timeline. She got here on January 9th, and I didn't feel ill until February 26.......a full 49 days later. ....... I have had a flu shot every year for the last 51 years. The military even gave me one that was giving people swine flu before they stopped giving them. LOL! That was my last free DoD vaccine! Made me sicker than a dog. I started getting them from my family doctor after that, and for the past several years I've been getting them at Walmart, either in Alaska or here in Orange County. I think the vaccines differ from region to region, so if you travel often, you're still at risk. I also wonder if they differ later in the season from the earlier vaccines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWWASAS Posted March 1, 2020 BFF Patron Share Posted March 1, 2020 I think the covid-19 has a very slow onset. People don't feel sick for quite a while or they think they have something else until it gets worse. It also lasts a long time. They really probably don't understand the progress of the disease yet. Vaccines from what I understand are best guesses at what flu version will be most active. They watch the Southern hemisphere flu season then tailor the vaccine to what happened there. Last year they did not do well in nailing down the right strains. Seems like they said it was only 40% effective. I think I got that swine flu shot then the very next day the CDC told everyone not to give it any more. I can remember when they decided to see how many people could tolerate some sort of anti chemical warfare drug. We were supposed to take two or three doses, I lied and told them the first one made me sick. So I didn't have to take the next ones. I think it was a pill. Most just said they took the pill but didn't Just goes to show that you cannot do medical testing on GI's We know how to game the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huntster Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, SWWASAS said: ........I think I got that swine flu shot then the very next day the CDC told everyone not to give it any more. I can remember when they decided to see how many people could tolerate some sort of anti chemical warfare drug........ In addition to the expected theory of testing out biological warfare bacteria on its own people (which the Army/Navy has been caught at before), another story I heard was that they used a live bacillus vaccine instead of a dead bacillus vaccine (or vice versa) because the one used was cheaper. It was the classic DoD plausible storyline that might be true, and likely isn't. All I know is that I got really sick soon after getting the shot, lots of other folks did, too, and it was during the height of the current anti vaccine movement. I just decided to get my flu shot elsewhere from then on, and I haven't had any problems like that since. Edited March 1, 2020 by Huntster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bipedalist Posted March 1, 2020 BFF Patron Share Posted March 1, 2020 (edited) Spoiler Spoiler Can't get rid of these spoilers but posting anyway. As I alluded to, some people snuck into Washington state undetected: this tweet from Twitter gives details: This is not exactly good news for the PNW https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1234161642151301120?s=20 According to this #SARSCoV2 genetic analysis the viral strain in Washington State traces to a Chinese strain from Fujian, likely arriving in Seattle area before January 15. If this is true, #COVID19 has been in the area, undetected, for 6 weeks. https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington This site https://www.gisaid.org/ also underscores the research to date and epidemiology https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/ Th Edited March 1, 2020 by bipedalist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwakwe Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Between 291,000 and 646,000 folks die from the seasonal flu every year as a matter of course, 2018 had 1.35 million die in traffic accidents, 2016 had 1.6 million die from diabetes but neither tanks the stock markets. HP Lovecraft was so right-- it's fear of the unknown that shakes the hairless bi-ped to the core. WHO figures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rlee Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, Kiwakwe said: Between 291,000 and 646,000 folks die from the seasonal flu every year as a matter of course, 2018 had 1.35 million die in traffic accidents, 2016 had 1.6 million die from diabetes but neither tanks the stock markets. HP Lovecraft was so right-- it's fear of the unknown that shakes the hairless bi-ped to the core. WHO figures So my local CBC (equal to your PBS?) had a doctor stating that the seasonal flu kills .01 to .1 percent of those affected. The COVID-19 kills between 2 and 4 percent of those affected. So if it ran the world as quickly as people are worried about we would see 20 to 400 times that with a low of 5,820,000 and up to 2,584,000,000. Now the problem with this is that the numbers are not really accurate because most of the deaths to date have been in China where health care is not what most of us receive. Our Government shipped a plane load of people back from China and they were quarantined only for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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