Hello all, That 1 ol boy here. . .I am in my early 60's with at least two college degrees and a skepticism that goes back to having a mother that was a high school Chem and physics teacher. Actually, my first real skeptical event was after seeing Erich Von Daniken and his "Chariot of the Frauds" in the early 70's. . as first it seemed plausible, but over time, news of wildly misrepresented information and outright lies made it's way to me. . I started looking at motives and dollar signs made a lot of sense. . .In the late 70's I was introduced to SKEPTIC magazine and life was never the same. . .
I noticed that the old Sagan truism, "Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence" was mentioned in your mandatory reading page. Strange as I had just recently found an excellent paper outlining Sagan's true intent in the phrase. See it here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7#Sec2 There is a .pdf link, I think you may find it interesting. Perhaps boring, depending on your perspective. At any rate, I discovered your site while researching Meldrum and Mumms infamous paper, "ANALYSIS INTEGRITY OF THE PATTERSON-GIMLIN FILM IMAGE" and had started to realize that mathematically, Meldrum did not "show his work," a bad boy. . .for shame, but I digress. Noticed some of your material on the actually first page and was impressed.
Among other things I am contemplating a probability problem with eDNA. "For an unknown creature that normally sheds DNA, and its probility of discovery via bianual eDNA surveys in the area is X% (still contemplating how to figure this value) what is the probability of discovery after 10 years, and 50 years. . .?? (think discovery of "patty" some 50 years after she hammed it up for Roger Patterson on Bluff Creek. . I suspect the probabilty a creature could avoid detection via eDNA for 50 years is essentially impossible. . .And I am not even talking about all the spurious appearances on YouBoob every day!
But alas, I digress!